Two new incidents targeting tankers around the Strait of Hormuz underscore the persistent fragility of navigation in one of the world’s most sensitive energy chokepoints. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump says that the war with Iran “will end very soon,” as Washington sharply increases its naval presence and the G7 seeks to cool energy prices by mobilizing its strategic reserves.
Saturday, October 3 marks the 108th day since the signing, on June 17, of the Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran, and the 217th day since the start of the war, on February 28. Despite the resumption of indirect contacts, the situation remains defined by maritime attacks, military threats and mounting pressure on oil markets.
Two Tankers Struck Around the Strait of Hormuz
On Friday, a tanker traversing the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf exit was struck by an unidentified projectile, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The impact caused a small fire and a power outage aboard. No injuries were reported, the fire was brought under control and the vessel continued on its way.
A few hours later, early Saturday, the captain of a oil tanker carrying crude reported a fresh attack about 4 nautical miles east of Oman. The vessel is said to have been hit on its port side by a projectile of undetermined origin. All crew members were reported safe and no environmental impact was reported at the immediate time.
No liability had been established for either incident at the time of reporting. The attacks come as shipping traffic remains well below pre-war levels.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains the Main Energy Tension Point
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz accounted for roughly one-fifth of global flows of crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Before the war, around 125 large merchant ships per day traversed this strategic passage.
Energy traffic has nevertheless shown signs of a rebound in September. According to S&P Global Energy, 19 LNG cargoes left the strait during the month, including 13 from Qatar and 6 from the United Arab Emirates. Kpler counted 21, up from 15 in June. Several ships carried out “dark passages,” temporarily turning off their AIS to reduce detection.
This rebound remains fragile. Operators continue to factor into their decisions the risk of attack, the cost of insurance, and the need for naval protection measures.
Tehran Claims to Control the Strait
General Mostafa Izadi, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards, stated on Friday that Iranian forces were exercising a “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz and that “the enemy does not dare approach it”.
He also claimed that American forces had moved more than 500 kilometers away from the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman due to the threat of Iranian missiles. These statements belong to Iranian military communications and have not been independently confirmed.
Trump: The War Could End After the Midterm Elections
At a rally Friday in Mobile, Alabama, Donald Trump again asserted that the war with Iran would end “very soon,” “one way or another,” suggesting a possible outcome just after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
The American president also predicted a sharp drop in oil prices once the conflict ends. He described the military and economic pressure exerted on Tehran as a “steel wall” meant to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Trump claimed that Iran had lost several leadership cadres and that it no longer possessed a functional navy, aviation, radar nor active air defense. He also put Iran’s inflation rate at around 310%. These statements were made by the American president in a campaign context and do not all correspond to independently verified data.
Three Aircraft Carriers and Two Amphibious Groups Around Iran
While Donald Trump speaks of an imminent end to the conflict, the Pentagon is simultaneously preparing a notably large military deployment.
The carrier strike group of the USS Theodore Roosevelt has been dispatched to the Middle East. It could join the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS George Washington, bringing the number of American aircraft carriers in the region to three in the coming weeks.
Two amphibious groups could also be on station simultaneously: those of the USS Boxer and the USS Makin Island. With escort ships, the naval arrangement could bring together more than 20,000 sailors and Marines as well as hundreds of aircraft. The three carrier groups combined could deploy up to about 150 combat aircraft.
Officials describe these movements as a way to give the president more options, whether to strengthen deterrence, protect navigation, or resume larger-scale military operations.
Discrete Camp David Meeting on Iran and Yemen
According to Axios, top U.S. national security officials met for several hours on Friday at Camp David to discuss the next steps regarding Iran and the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen.
The meeting was chaired by Vice President JD Vance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, attended.
The White House did not comment on the meeting. According to Axios, Donald Trump would lean toward not participating directly in new strikes against the Houthis, but this position could still evolve.
The Diplomatic Track Remains Open but Fragile
Alongside the American military buildup, indirect contacts continue. Iran recently indicated it had received, through Qatar, an American response to a seven-day confidence-building plan, notably concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran remained willing to negotiate, while rejecting the idea of concessions imposed under pressure. In Washington, officials have for months highlighted the difficulty of ensuring that any negotiated agreement with Iranian civilian leaders would be implemented across all centers of power, notably the Revolutionary Guards.
The G7 Frees 100 Million Barrels to Calm Prices
Faced with rising fuel prices, the G7 countries decided on Friday to coordinate, via the International Energy Agency, the release onto the market of 100 million barrels of diesel, crude oil and other energy reserves.
The operation is to begin immediately and extend over four months. A substantial portion of the diesel is to be injected within the 20 first days. The G7 also pledged not to impose restrictions on energy exports among its members.
The mechanism follows a prior exceptional operation of 400 million barrels coordinated in March by the IEA. According to its Executive Director Fatih Birol, about two-thirds of these commitments had already been executed before the new decision.
An Effect Already Visible on Diesel and Oil
Initial market reactions show that the announcement had an immediate effect, even though it does not address the structural causes of the crisis.
U.S. diesel futures fell by 3.25%, to around $4.49 per gallon, while European diesel futures dropped by about $83 per tonne, or 5.75%, during discussions on stock releases.
On Friday, Brent settled at $102.25 per barrel, down 0.06%, while U.S. WTI fell by 1.90% to $91.11.
The initial European plan discussed had envisaged releasing 50 million barrels of diesel. This volume would have represented about 17% of Europe’s emergency diesel and gasoil stocks, but only around 3% of the European Union’s annual consumption. The final G7 agreement, however, does not specify the exact split among crude, diesel and other products.
For the markets, the measure can thus ease near-term pressure, but its effectiveness will depend mainly on the duration of disturbances in the gulf, available refining capacity and the security of maritime traffic.
Washington Also Steps Up Financial Pressure
The United States continues to tighten financial sanctions. The U.S. Treasury announced this week a new action against the financial network A7, which it accuses of helping Iran circumvent sanctions through financial circuits linked to Russia.
Washington says it aims to identify and deprive funding from structures that allow the Iranian regime, its military apparatus and regional allies to access currencies and the international financial system. The targeted entities dispute some of the American accusations.
Between Signs of De-escalation and Military Preparations
The developments of the past hours send contradictory signals. Donald Trump says the war is nearing its end and diplomatic contacts continue, but Washington is simultaneously deploying a substantial naval force around Iran.
At the same time, attacks on ships remind us that the Strait of Hormuz remains a decisive factor for global energy prices. The release of the G7 reserves may temporarily ease pressure on fuels, but lasting stabilization will depend primarily on navigation security and on the evolving face-off between Washington and Tehran.
Sources : UKMTO, G7 statement of October 2, 2026, Reuters, Axios, U.S. Department of the Treasury and official American and Iranian statements.
