The tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump have not triggered the spectacular revival of the automobile industry that he boasts about, analysts say. They present a more mixed assessment.
Since the Republican billionaire returned to power, General Motors, Toyota, Ford and other manufacturers have, indeed, announced plans to expand factories in the United States or partially relocate production, encouraged notably by the 25% tariff on imported vehicles, but these gains remain limited and offset by the uncertainty surrounding Washington’s trade policy, according to experts.
“This is a partial victory,” sums up Stephanie Brinley, an analyst at Mobility Global. The consequences have recently appeared with tensions between the United States and Canada, which cloud the outlook for the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). In July, Washington announced it did not intend to renew it, opening the way to an annual review of the text until its expiry in 2036.
This is due to the instability!
A senior Honda official indicated in August that they were considering building a new plant in North America, while warning that prolonging the ambiguity around the USMCA could jeopardize these projects.
The uncertainties linked to tariffs and Trump’s reversal on electric vehicles have also weakened American auto suppliers, who provide parts and technologies to manufacturers and employ about 930,000 people in the United States.
Better under Joe Biden
After dipping in 2025, employment in the American auto industry started rising again in 2026, reaching nearly 1.8 million workers in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
That level is nearly 1% higher than in January 2025, when Donald Trump took office, but remains more than 2% below the peak recorded in July 2024 under Joe Biden.
Long-term effects
Automotive production remains broadly stable. Analysts do not anticipate a marked rise until around 2030, when the investments announced by General Motors in Michigan, Kansas and Tennessee ($4 billion) will take effect, as well as Toyota’s plan to move Tacoma pickup production from Mexico to Texas.
According to Mobility Global, U.S. production should stay around 10 million vehicles in 2026, before climbing to about 11.3 million in 2030.
“There is clearly an uptick coming, and it is partly linked to tariffs,” notes Stephanie Brinley, while recalling that investment decisions in new factories are made over several decades and not within a single presidential term.
