Environmental and climate specialist Adel Hentati stated, on Monday, June 15, 2026, to Tunisie Numérique, that no drop in temperatures was expected during the coming period. They should, on the contrary, continue to rise under the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, which contributes to the warming of oceans and seas.
Temperatures Above Seasonal Normals
Adel Hentati indicated that, according to the main meteorological and climatic observatories, including American agencies, the months of June, July and August could record temperatures surpassing the seasonal normals by 7 to 8 degrees.
He added that this rise would also affect polar regions, underscoring the scale of warming observed globally.
A Heat Wave Accompanied by Rain
The specialist explained that the rise in temperatures could be accompanied by precipitation.
According to forecasts from the National Meteorology Institute, the conditions expected in Tunisia through Saturday will be characterized by high temperatures and the presence of humid air, i.e., an atmospheric configuration similar to that usually observed in autumn.
The rainfall announced during this period would also be comparable, in their formation, to autumn precipitation. The evaporation process, which occurs between morning and early afternoon, indeed promotes cloud development.
Tunisia Under the Influence of the Subtropical Anticyclone
Adel Hentati recalled that the weather situation in Tunisia remained dominated by the subtropical anticyclone, currently present in the region and responsible for the arrival of warm air masses.
This system causes the formation of a heat dome. Simultaneously, cold air masses with low pressure from polar regions penetrate into the upper layers of the atmosphere.
The meeting of these air masses favors cloud formation and rainfall, mainly on elevations and in mountainous areas. These precipitations should not be generalized nor persistent.
Hail, a Sign of a Clash Between Air Masses
The specialist also stressed that hail episodes accompanying the rains testified to the presence of polar cold air corridors aloft.
These cold air masses intrude under the pressure of the warm air linked to the anticyclone dominating the subtropical zone.
According to him, this interaction favors the formation of cumulus clouds and can provoke temporarily heavy rains, concentrated over short periods.
