Recent studies warn that the intensification of heat waves could become one of the main economic challenges that India will face in the coming years, due to increased losses in productivity and working hours, as well as mounting pressures on sectors heavily dependent on physical labor.
According to estimates from the McKinsey Global Institute, the rise in temperatures and humidity could threaten between 2.5% and 4.5% of India’s gross domestic product by 2030, as a significant portion of its economy relies on construction, manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics.
A study by the University of Chicago also showed that production in Indian factories declined by about 2% for each one-degree Celsius rise in temperature, due to reduced worker productivity and increased absenteeism.
The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change initiative estimates that India lost nearly 247 billion potential work hours in 2024 due to heat exposure, a 124% increase relative to the 1990s average.
These consequences are particularly visible in several industrial sectors. In Kanpur, a nerve center of India’s leather industry, factory owners have reported a drop in productivity and a surge in cases of thermal stress among workers as temperatures reached 46 degrees Celsius.
Construction companies have also been forced to adjust their working hours to avoid the hottest mid-day hours. At the same time, industrial and service companies have begun providing additional cooling systems, drinking water, and more frequent breaks to limit the effects of heat on employees.
In April last year, the Indian government issued guidelines to companies to reorganize working hours and provide employees with shaded spaces as well as protective equipment. Some states have also brought forward the summer holidays or opted for online learning.
According to experts, India is now a clear example of how climate change can become a structural economic constraint, particularly in developing economies that still depend on millions of workers working outdoors or in non-climate-controlled environments.
Academic estimates warn that India could become, by 2050, the country most affected in the world by extreme heat if global warming continues. This situation reinforces the need for massive investments in infrastructure, cooling systems, and urban planning to address growing economic risks.
