Falling fertility, accelerating aging: what the new INED study reveals for regional decision-makers and investors
The Maghreb has, in less than a generation, shifted from among the highest fertility rates in the world to levels Europe took a century to reach. This change, long read as a health and social success, is today becoming a major economic variable. Fewer births means, in the long run, fewer workers, more retirees, and increased pressure on pension, health, and public financing systems.
For investors and economic decision-makers in the region, understanding this trajectory is no longer an academic exercise; it is a prerequisite for any long-term strategy.
That is precisely what the study documents, “Historically low fertility in the Maghreb,” published in May 2026 by the French National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED). It traces, with official data to support it, the evolution of the total fertility rate (TFR) in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia since 1990, an indicator that measures the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime at the rates observed in a given year.
This panorama, built from data associated with INED’s study, condenses 35 years of demographic shift. The replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman, long considered a natural floor in the region, is now crossed downward in all three countries.
Three trajectories, one same destination
The apparent convergence of the 1990s has given way to national paths that are markedly different. Tunisia was the first to reach the replacement threshold, as early as 1999, before a moderate rebound to 2.4 children per woman in 2014, followed by a sharp decline: 1.58 in 2023, with an estimated 1.53 for 2024 according to the study.
Algeria experienced a much larger rebound, surpassing 3 children per woman in the mid-2010s, driven by a boom in marriages, before starting its own decline since 2017. Morocco, by contrast, never experienced a rebound as its decline has been continuous and steady since the 1990s, until dipping below the replacement threshold in 2024, with a TFR of 1.97. Three timelines, therefore, for the same destination: low fertility levels in Algeria, very low in Morocco and in Tunisia.
Nuptiality and contraception, drivers of the decline
