According to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tunisia is expected to record a growth rate of 2.1% in 2026, a level that remains stable compared with previous estimates, in a regional context marked by the economic repercussions of the war between Iran and Israel.
These projections, which compare the economic outlooks of January 2026 with prior forecasts (October for some countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia), highlight a contrasting dynamic within Arab economies.
With growth kept at 2.1%, Tunisia ranks among the countries displaying relative stability, unlike several economies in the region that have undergone downward revisions, sometimes substantial.
This performance, though modest, reflects a certain resilience in the face of external shocks, notably energy price volatility and geopolitical tensions.
For comparison, countries such as Morocco (4.9%) and Mauritania (4.4%) are expected to show markedly higher performance, while Egypt would reach 4.2%, despite a slight downward revision.
The Gulf countries appear among the most affected by the deterioration of economic prospects. The IMF particularly anticipates a marked recession in Qatar (-8.6%) and in Iraq (-6.8%), accompanied by strong negative revisions compared with previous forecasts.
Kuwait (-0.6%) and Bahrain (-0.5%) are also expected to experience a contraction in their economic activity, confirming the impact of energy fluctuations and regional tensions on these hydrocarbon-dependent economies.
Even among growing economies, several countries register negative revisions. This is the case for Saudi Arabia (3.1%, down 1.4 percentage points) and the United Arab Emirates (3.1%, down 1.9 percentage points). Algeria, however, stands out with an expected growth of 3.8%, up 0.9 percentage point.
