This Sunday, November 15, 2026, 260 days after the outbreak of the war triggered by the American and Israeli strikes on February 28, the conflict with Iran continues to unfold on multiple fronts.
On the 151st day of the Islamabad memorandum signed on June 18 (including the signing day), the operations claimed in Bahrain, the incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, and the disagreement over the nuclear program continue to push away the prospect of a durable settlement.
The day is marked by a new Iranian airstrike announced against Bahrain, by claims of incidents involving two tankers, and by American assessments showing that Tehran’s ballistic capabilities remain significant. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is considering delaying further strikes, without having decided.
The essentials
Iran says it has launched six drones against a United States radar in Bahrain, while Manama says it intercepted several attacks.
The International Maritime Organization records 136 confirmed incidents and 25 sailors killed in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region, according to its tally as of November 11.
U.S. intelligence would assess the Iranian arsenal at 1,500 to 2,500 missiles, with a low level of confidence.
Bahrain: Six drones claimed, attacks intercepted
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards said they had launched six drones against a U.S. air-defense radar located at Bahrain’s Al-Riffa helicopter base. The operation, according to Tehran, was carried out in retaliation for actions deemed hostile by the United States.
Bahraini authorities issued two security alerts urging the population to seek shelter. The kingdom’s army later stated that its air defenses had intercepted and destroyed several Iranian air attacks before they reached their targets. No independent confirmation at this stage allows us to assert that the American radar was hit.
This sequence comes two days after a previous Iranian claim against an early-warning radar in Bahrain. The American command for the Middle East had then denied any damage, saying it had shot down two drones. The new episode heightens the tension in a country hosting the U.S. Fifth Fleet.
Egypt Reaffirms the Link Between Gulf Security and National Security
Developments in Bahrain also concern the Gulf Arab partners. Cairo has on several occasions condemned Iranian attacks targeting the kingdom and reaffirmed its solidarity with its authorities.
In its official statements, Egypt views the security of Bahrain and that of the Gulf states as closely linked to its own national security and to Arab security.
Manama, for its part, condemned Sunday’s attacks and affirmed its right to defend its territory. The extension of strikes and interceptions to neighboring countries underscores the regional risks of a conflict that goes beyond the Iran-U.S. stand-off.
Strait of Hormuz: Two Tankers Reported on Fire and 25 Sailors Dead Since February
The Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on Sunday that two tankers, accused of taking an unauthorized route, had struck sea mines and caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian authorities, the vessels were sailing without using their usual identification systems. The names of the ships and any potential casualty toll were not specified; these precise incidents have not been independently verified.
The day before, Iranian authorities had already claimed that three tankers had struck mines in the Strait. Reuters had noted that it could not immediately confirm those statements. Tehran says it maintains restrictions on the passage of ships, while the United States continues its maritime blockade against Iran.
The Confirmed Maritime Toll
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) records, as of November 11, 2026, 136 safety incidents involving ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Middle East, as well as 25 mariners’ deaths.
According to the count relayed by the United Nations, 35 incidents were recorded in October and 10 from November 1 to 11. This regional scope does not correspond exclusively to the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
These figures remind us that the maritime crisis is also a human crisis. Commercial ships, their crews, insurers, and supply chains encounter persistent risk, regardless of the military claims made by each side.
Iranian Missiles: Between 1,500 and 2,500 Units According to an American Estimate
According to American officials cited on Sunday by the Wall Street Journal, U.S. intelligence assesses the Iranian arsenal at 1,500 to 2,500 missiles. The sources note that this is a low-confidence estimate, given the difficulty in distinguishing missiles ready to be fired from those held in reserve.
The paper also notes that Iran would have continued reconstituting part of its capabilities, notably with components stored before the attacks. Israeli military officials cited by the paper assess, for their part, the number of Iranian ballistic missiles at more than 1,500. Because the categories and estimation methods are not identical, these figures should not be added together.
Tehran unveiled a new underground missile facility last week. This display is part of the country’s brinkmanship over its military capabilities, but it alone does not verify the volume of its operational arsenal.
Nuclear: Tehran Refuses a Provisional Freeze, the IAEA Worries About Isfahan
The Iranian Foreign Ministry says it will not accept a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment within the framework of a deal. Tehran reiterates its intention to keep nuclear materials on its soil and says it remains a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), while accusing some IAEA officials of adopting a biased approach.
The IAEA presents a different assessment. In a report transmitted to member states on Friday, November 13, which Reuters obtained, it expresses growing concern about an enrichment facility in Isfahan, declared in June 2025 but still inaccessible to its inspectors. The Agency says it cannot determine precisely the location, status, or the presence of any nuclear materials at this facility.
Before the June 2025 strikes, the IAEA had estimated Iran’s stock of enriched uranium up to 60% at 440.9 kilograms. This figure is a historical reference point, and not a quantity verified in November 2026. The lack of access to the sites prevents the Agency from confirming the current stock and its location.
Iran argues that the U.S. and Israeli strikes have created exceptional conditions incompatible with the normal functioning of inspections. The IAEA, for its part, says it is essential to restore verification of all materials and facilities subject to international safeguards.
Qalibaf Hardens the Tone Toward Washington and Scott Bessent
The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, warned on Sunday that his country would not remain indefinitely in a situation of “neither war nor peace.” If the United States were to commit what he calls a mistake, he warned, the geographic scope of a new confrontation would be determined by the capabilities and will of the Iranian armed forces.
He reaffirmed that the path to a deal would remain open if Washington accepts the seven conditions put forward by Tehran: lifting the naval blockade, ensuring safe passage for commercial and oil ships through Hormuz, lifting unilateral sanctions, exemptions for oil exports, unfreezing Iranian assets, keeping nuclear materials on the country, and ending the war.
Qalibaf also verbally attacked U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent after his statements about death threats he says he has received and his move to a military base on the recommendation of protection services. Bessent had described Iranian leaders as a dangerous adversary under pressure; his Iranian counterpart denounced the remarks as offensive. These statements reflect the deterioration of dialogue, without themselves constituting a decision to escalate militarily.
Trump Considering Holding Back New Strikes
On the American front, Donald Trump had told his advisers that he might refrain, for the moment, from new strikes if Iran or Yemen’s Houthis do not provoke the United States. This is not a final decision nor a de-escalation agreement.
According to the report, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have called for restraint. Israeli officials, by contrast, would continue to advocate for a renewed military campaign. U.S. forces retain options for intervention, while economic sanctions and the naval blockade remain instruments of pressure.
Tensions are not limited to Iran: on Sunday, the coalition led by Saudi Arabia announced the interception of two Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and three drones in the kingdom’s eastern province, according to Reuters.
Diplomacy: Islamabad Hosts Ministers of the Economic Cooperation Organization
Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, is listed to travel to Islamabad for the 30th meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), organized on November 15 and 16, 2026. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry confirmed the meeting, chaired by its counterpart Ishaq Dar, focusing on regional cooperation, trade, and logistics corridors.
This gathering is not, in itself, a new direct negotiation between Washington and Tehran. It comes as regional mediations, notably through Qatar, continue to seek a formula acceptable to both sides.
Energy and Tunisia: Risks to Monitor, Without Premature Quantification
For economies dependent on energy imports, notably Tunisia, the persistence of the risk in the Strait of Hormuz could weigh on international oil prices, maritime transport costs, and insurance.
The extent of the impact on Tunisia’s energy bill cannot, however, be inferred from the incidents announced this Sunday.
The equation remains thus uncertain: Washington is exploring the possibility of delaying strikes, while Tehran maintains its political and nuclear demands.
Between the two, navigation security in the Gulf remains a decisive issue for the regional economy as well as for global markets.
