On the 178th day of the war between the United States and Iran, and 69 days after the signing of the Islamabad memorandum intended to pave the way for de-escalation, Washington is sharply intensifying its economic pressure on Tehran while refusing to rule out a resumption of military strikes.
Facing this renewed offensive, Iranian authorities say they are prepared for the sanctions and promise to retaliate if their infrastructure or vital interests are threatened. At the same time, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited, a sign that the crisis is far from resolved.
The essentials
- Washington has launched a new economic offensive against Iran, dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”, targeting in particular the oil, financial and maritime networks linked to Tehran.
- The US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, says that the United States does not rule out resuming strikes against Iran or in the Hormuz Strait area.
- Tehran says it is prepared for the new sanctions and is counting on maintaining its economic ties with China and Russia.
- Traffic remains heavily disrupted in Hormuz: only two ships carrying commodities crossed the strait on Monday, versus a recent average of 14 per day.
- Iran has placed 45 oil tankers on a blacklist, while Pakistan and the UN are meanwhile attempting to preserve de-escalation channels and secure certain maritime flows.
Washington Launches its “Economic Offensive”
The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, announced a new campaign dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast”, aimed at reinforcing Iran’s financial and commercial isolation.
Washington now threatens countries, banks and companies that continue certain activities with Tehran with secondary sanctions potentially leading to exclusion from the dollar-based financial system.
Another round of sanctions targets nearly 60 individuals, companies and ships, in sectors including oil, maritime transport, nuclear and ballistic programs as well as Iranian financial networks.
Among the targeted companies is Wellbred Capital, a trading company based in Singapore. The US Treasury says it is linked to the network of Iranian businessman Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani.
Its activities and those of associated companies extend notably to the United Arab Emirates, Switzerland and France. Wellbred operates in the trading of oil, naphta, petrochemical products and liquefied petroleum gas.
Military option remains on the table
However, this economic offensive does not mean Washington is abandoning the use of force.
The US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, has clearly indicated that the United States does not rule out new strikes against Iran.
Asked about a possible suspension of military operations, he assured that Washington could resort to strikes if necessary, notably in the Hormuz Strait or around Iran.
Hegseth nonetheless argued that economic pressure is currently one of the main levers of pressure on Tehran.
According to Axios, American officials believe that secondary sanctions should remain the main instrument of Washington at least until the November 2026 mid-term elections. After this deadline, another military campaign could again be considered.
Tehran says it is ready for sanctions
Iran downplays Washington’s ability to completely choke off its economy.
Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said that his country was “fully prepared” to face the new sanctions.
He stated that Tehran has its own retaliatory tools and that its strategy would not be purely defensive.
Iran is counting in particular on maintaining its economic ties with some of its major partners. Tehran believes that China and Russia will not automatically comply with American demands.
Beijing did indeed reaffirm that its cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also indicated that China would take the necessary measures to protect its interests.
Iranian threats, however, extend beyond the economic realm. A spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards warned that attacks on Iranian infrastructure could trigger strikes against American interests and strategic energy routes.
Hormuz: only two ships vs an average of 14
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most worrying indicators of this crisis.
According to updated data from the specialized firm Kpler, only two ships carrying commodities crossed the strait on Monday, the lowest daily number recorded since the start of May.
The two vessels were entering the Gulf: a Very Large Gas Carrier and a Very Large Crude Carrier.
By way of comparison, the ten-day average preceding had reached 14 ships per day.
These figures should however be interpreted with caution, as some ships may traverse the area with their navigation transponders switched off.
Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was one of the world’s main energy arteries, with around 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows passing through this route.
Iran places 45 oil tankers on blacklist
Maritime tension further intensified after Tehran decided to blacklist 45 oil tankers for having, according to Iranian authorities, violated the rules imposed for crossing the strait.
Iran threatens these ships with fines, seizure or confiscation of their cargoes.
Vessels making ship-to-ship transfers with the tankers listed could also face similar measures.
This decision adds another layer of uncertainty for shipping companies and insurers operating in the Gulf.
India-Iran: trade already cut by more than 90%
The new American sanctions are also affecting trade between Iran and its traditional partners.
Indian exports to Iran, notably rice, tea and medicines, could fall further after the United Arab Emirates suspended commercial and financial activities with Tehran.
India used to be among Iran’s top five trading partners.
However, bilateral trade has already fallen by more than 90% from a peak of around $17 billion registered during the 2018-2019 fiscal year.
Trade routes via Dubai had so far played a significant role in settling transactions between Indian exporters and Iranian buyers.
The closure of this financial channel could therefore further complicate payments and push Indian companies to seek alternative trade routes.
UN proposes a path for fertilizers
In the face of disruptions to maritime trade, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has proposed that the UN act as a “neutral facilitator” to secure, in particular, the transit of fertilizers and related raw materials.
The mechanism envisaged would involve notably registering and verifying the ships involved to make their passage more predictable.
The UN notes, however, that it would not issue navigation authorization and would not change the rights and obligations of states under international law.
Its implementation would also require the agreement of the countries involved in the conflict.
Pakistan attempts to reopen a diplomatic channel
In this context, Pakistan continues its mediation efforts.
Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir travelled to Tehran for discussions focusing notably on preventing a new escalation, reopening the Hormuz Strait and seeking a negotiated resolution to the conflict.
Pakistan’s Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi, spoke of “significant progress” following talks with Iranian leaders.
Islamabad is seeking to reactivate the process stemming from the memorandum signed in June, whose ceasefire provisions and normalization of navigation did not ultimately stabilize the situation. The Pakistan-Iran discussions of August 25 and their de-escalation objective were confirmed by Reuters.
A confrontation now economic, military and maritime
The situation on August 25 thus illustrates a new phase in the power struggle between Washington and Tehran.
The United States now seeks to tighten the financial squeeze around Iran without closing the door to renewed military intervention. Tehran, for its part, tries to show that its economy can withstand sanctions and keeps the Hormuz Strait as one of its main levers of pressure.
Between them, Pakistan and United Nations diplomatic efforts attempt to keep channels of de-escalation open.
But with only two crude-material ships having crossed Hormuz on Monday, against a recent average of 14, the normalization of this strategic route remains still very far away.
