The Board of Bank Al-Maghrib decided this Tuesday, September 22, at its third quarterly meeting of 2026 to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. It indicated that it would continue to closely monitor the evolution of external and internal conditions and to base its decisions, meeting by meeting, on the most up-to-date data.
The Bank Al-Maghrib Council stated that the rising cost of petroleum products and certain inputs, as well as the sustained high level of imports of equipment, linked to the continued investment effort, continue to weigh on the trade balance.
For monetary conditions, Bank Al-Maghrib indicated that banks’ liquidity needs would gradually intensify, mainly due to the expected rise in currency in circulation, to stand at 168.2 billion dirhams in 2027.
In parallel, travel receipts would maintain their momentum to reach 160 billion in 2027 and remittance transfers by Moroccans living abroad (MRE) would consolidate at 136.3 billion dirhams in the same year.
With regard to FDI receipts, projections point to an annual flow equivalent to 3.5% of GDP. All told, taking into account notably the planned external financing for the Treasury, official reserve assets would continue to strengthen, standing at 502.8 billion dirhams by the end of 2026 and at 515.3 billion by the end of 2027, i.e., the equivalent of five and a half months of imports of goods and services.
As for bank credit to the non-financial sector, its pace is expected, according to Bank Al-Maghrib projections and the banking system’s expectations, to experience a marked acceleration, rising from 4.8% in 2025 to 8.1% this year before returning to 6.1% in 2027.
As for the value of the dirham, after an appreciation of 2% in 2025, the real effective exchange rate is expected to depreciate by 4.1% this year and by 2% in 2027. That said, the quarterly assessments conducted by Bank Al-Maghrib indicate that it remains broadly aligned with the economic fundamentals.
