The BMI institution, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, expects Tunisia’s current account deficit to fall to 3.8% of GDP in 2027, compared with 4.3% expected in 2026, a drop of 0.5 percentage point.
In a report published in mid-October last year, the institution notes that this improvement should occur despite the continued rise in the energy import bill during the first half of 2027. The cost of these imports will thus continue to weigh on the country’s external balances, at least until the first quarter of the same year.
However, several factors should help limit the widening of the current account deficit. These include measures aimed at reducing imports as well as the improvement in revenues from the tourism sector, two elements likely to support a decline in the deficit to the level projected for 2027, compared with 2026.
Regarding external liquidity, BMI estimates that the risks associated with it should remain limited, thanks to the support provided to Tunisia by its partners, notably Algeria and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).
These forecasts appear in a report devoted to Tunisia’s external situation, entitled: “The energy import bill will keep Tunisia’s external position under pressure until the first quarter of 2027”.
It should be recalled that Fitch Solutions, through its BMI research brand, is an international institution specialized in economic studies, country- and sector-risk analysis, as well as providing data and economic and financial forecasts to investors, financial institutions, businesses, governments and research centers.
