The financial analyst Bassem Neifer stated that Tunisia should have a better margin of maneuver in 2027 compared with the previous three years, notably thanks to a reduction in pressures related to debt repayment.
In an interview granted to the Tunis Africa Press (TAP) agency, Neifer indicated that the preparation of the finance bills and the state budget for 2027 comes after a difficult year for the country, marked in particular by the weight of regional geopolitical developments, which have heavily affected hydrocarbon prices and, consequently, the energy subsidy bill in Tunisia.
He estimated that the preparation of the finance bills and the 2027 budget lies within the framework of budgeting by objectives, established on three-year cycles. According to him, next year’s budget will thus open a new cycle covering the period 2027-2029.
He also noted that the 2027 finance and budget bills fit within the context of the second year of the execution of the five-year development plan for 2026-2030, specifying that the programs and projects planned by this plan should be integrated into the two texts.
A budget to restore public finances
Without detailed figures, Neifer stressed that the preparation of the new finance bill comes after a difficult year for public finances, the state having had to bear the cost of rising hydrocarbon prices, particularly oil and gas, in a context marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russo-Ukrainian war.
He estimated that the expenditures devoted to subsidies could exceed the amounts listed in the state budget project for 2026, notably due to the evolution of assumptions under the influence of the global geostrategic situation.
“I expect the new year to begin with a budget aimed at repairing the imbalances suffered by public finances. This suggests that the next year’s finance bill will not contain major measures or good surprises,” he said, according to his assessment.
Debt service decline
Neifer furthermore explained that debt service in 2027 should be lower than in 2026 and approach the levels recorded in 2023. He estimates it at around 20 billion dinars.
He based his analysis mainly on the total domestic debt service for this year, estimated at nearly 6.46 billion dinars, including about 3.043 billion dinars in long-term Treasury bonds, about 1.3 billion dinars in short-term Treasury bills, as well as around 1.65 billion dinars corresponding to the repayment of maturities of national bond loans.
As for the external debt, Neifer estimates that its service should not exceed 5 billion dinars next year, i.e., a level lower than that recorded for 2026, according to his estimates.
A better margin of maneuver next year
Based on this debt service analysis, the financial analyst estimated that Tunisia would benefit in 2027 from a better margin of maneuver than in the previous three years, notably thanks to the easing of pressures related to debt repayment.
He however specified that the assumptions and forecasts on which the new budget will rest must take into account global developments, particularly the prices of crude oil.
Thus he suggested adopting for next year a Brent crude price assumption higher than the one used in the 2026 forecasts.
Neifer also estimated that the volume of subsidies could increase in the new budget draft, given the state’s social orientations and the maintenance of global prices for certain raw materials, notably wheat, at elevated levels. According to him, this situation could lead to higher budget expenditures in 2027.
Stability expected for the dinar
The financial analyst also anticipated stability in the Tunisian dinar’s exchange rate, noting that no major risk currently weighs on the national currency.
Regarding the budget deficit, he estimated that it could be below 6% next year, compared with 6.4% expected for the entire current year, according to a Fitch ratings agency report.
According to him, deficit financing should rely on internal resources, with continued recourse to domestic debt, in a context where access to external financing remains difficult to cover budgetary needs.
Conversely, Neifer believes that any external borrowings obtained could be directed mainly toward project financing.
No new taxes expected
Neifer also estimated that public investment should improve next year, notably through the implementation of projects included in the five-year development plan. He, however, considered that the volume of public financing allocated to these investments should not be particularly large.
On the fiscal front, the financial analyst expects that the 2027 finance bill will introduce neither major new tax measures nor new taxes.
However, he specified that tax incentives could be directed toward the promising sectors on which the state intends to bet.
