The deputy and member of the Finance Committee at the Assembly of the Representatives of the People (ARP), Issam Chouchane, stated, in an exclusive interview with Tunisia Numérique, that the committee will hold two separate meetings next week with the Minister of Finance and the Minister of Economy. These meetings will notably address the execution of the 2026 budget, the implementation of the provisions of the Finance Law, and the examination of the draft economic budget and the Finance Bill for 2027.
Among the main points raised by the deputy are the hypothesis of a barrel of oil at $80, growth prospects, the evolution of the budget deficit and the potential consequences of borrowing from the Central Bank of Tunisia (CBT). Issam Chouchane proposes in particular to examine the possibility of directing borrowed funds toward supporting public enterprises rather than toward direct budget financing and salary payments.
Two meetings planned with the Ministers of Finance and Economy
According to Issam Chouchane, the Finance Committee decided, during a meeting devoted to the draft Finance Law 2027, to organize two distinct sessions next week: one with the Minister of Finance and the other with the Minister of Economy.
The discussions will focus on the level of execution of the 2026 budget, both on the expenditure and revenue sides, as well as the application of the provisions adopted by the Assembly of the Representatives of the People last year and approved by the President of the Republic.
The two meetings will also be devoted to the examination of the 2027 economic budget draft and the Finance Bill for the same year.
Moreover, the Finance Committee must hold, on Thursday, a joint meeting with its counterpart from the National Council of Regions and Districts. This meeting should allow discussion of the progression of the upcoming sessions and the organization of work devoted to the 2027 Finance Law, as well as to missions and special assignments.
A barrel at $80 per barrel deemed unrealistic by the deputy
In his initial reading of the 2027 Finance Bill, Issam Chouchane mentioned several economic hypotheses, including growth projected at 3.1%, a barrel price set at around $80, and the maintenance of the Tunisian dinar’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. He also noted a relative rise in the price per quintal of wheat among the examined hypotheses.
The deputy stressed that these forecasts depend on internal and external factors, while expressing reservations about the oil assumption.
According to his statements, the barrel price was around $110 at the time mentioned. In this context, he believes that setting a price of $80 to establish the budget projections is not realistic.
The commission intends to discuss this hypothesis with the Minister of Finance to obtain elements allowing an understanding of the foundations of this estimate and to assess its potential implications for budgetary balances.
Is 3.1% growth sufficient for the Tunisian economy?
Regarding growth prospects, Issam Chouchane considers that a rate close to 3% would constitute an ambitious objective given the performances of recent years. He nevertheless believes that this level would be insufficient to meet the needs of the Tunisian economy.
The deputy also questions the conditions that would allow achieving this objective while the budget deficit is expected to evolve.
He states in particular that the net increase in the budget deficit, in dinars, between the 2026 budget and the 2027 budget project would reach 32.6%.
This figure, advanced by the deputy, should be reconciled with official budget data in order to specify the compared amounts and the calculation method used.
For Issam Chouchane, the combination of growth objectives and the announced evolution of the deficit raises questions about the capacity of the proposed measures to stimulate economic activity while improving the balances of public finances.
Start-ups and small businesses: measures deemed positive but insufficient
Nevertheless, the deputy notes several positive provisions in the 2027 Finance Bill, notably the measures to support start-ups and small businesses.
He also cites the state’s taking on of social security contributions for companies created between 2027 and 2030, in accordance with the elements presented in his statement.
These provisions are, in his view, incentive measures. He questions, however, their ability to effectively contribute to the growth target and their yield for the State budget.
Beyond their incentive nature, their effectiveness will need to be evaluated in light of their effects on investment, company creation and the development of economic activity.
The deputy deplores the absence of sufficiently strong social measures
On the social front, Issam Chouchane believes that the 2027 Finance Bill does not contain measures with a sufficiently significant impact on the daily lives of citizens.
He mentions the difficulties related to purchasing power and the scale of the parallel market, considering that the project does not at this stage foresee measures strong enough to address these problems.
This critique points to the balance between the state’s financing needs, support for investment and the consideration of social difficulties faced by Tunisian households.
Borrowing from the CBT: Issam Chouchane proposes to support public enterprises
One of the main points of disagreement raised by the deputy concerns borrowing from the Central Bank of Tunisia.
Issam Chouchane opposes this option in its current configuration, believing that it could have negative consequences for the national economy in the short as well as the long term.
He notably mentioned the financing conditions cited in the project, with a three-year grace period and repayment deadlines referencing seven and fifteen years. These modalities require, in his view, a thorough examination of the destination of borrowed funds and their contribution to economic activity.
The deputy considers that the next meeting with the Minister of Finance will be important to study other financing possibilities.
Among the avenues he proposes is the automatic allocation of funds borrowed from the CBT to supporting public enterprises, rather than their direct use to finance the state budget and pay salaries.
“If these funds are directed toward financing the budget and paying salaries, it would be a very bad option,” he says, warning about the potential consequences of this choice on the national economy.
According to his analysis, borrowing under the envisaged conditions risks mobilizing resources that could have contributed to supporting the economy to allocate them directly to financing budget expenditures.
He therefore calls for deeper exploration of the different options before deciding on this financing mechanism.
The upcoming meetings with the Ministers of Finance and Economy should allow a more detailed examination of the assumptions retained for the 2027 budget, the state’s financing choices and the proposed economic and social measures.
