Some periods tilt the economy away from the realm of theoretical constructions and back to its most concrete, almost visceral dimension, where equilibria loosen under the pressure of events that models struggle to grasp.
The war in the Middle East at the outset of 2026 falls into this category of systemic shocks, brutally exposing the fragilities of an economic order that many believed could still be controlled.
For Tunisia, this shock goes far beyond the conjunctural register. It acts as an accelerator of structural challenges, in a context already constrained where levers of action have gradually been undermined.
Behind the expected indicators such as the slowdown in growth and inflationary pressures, a deeper reality unfolds, that of an economy forced to improvise, caught between conflicting theoretical legacies and immediate imperatives.
An energy shock with systemic effects
The regional conflict did not create Tunisian fragility; it laid bare its magnitude. Even before its onset, the global economy rested on unstable foundations, supported by accommodative monetary policies and prolonged stimulus dynamics. This fragile architecture was brutally tested by the energy shock.
In economies with solid budget margins and relatively autonomous energy, the impact remains absorbable. For others, like Tunisia, it takes on an existential dimension. The country’s energy dependence turns each fluctuation in international prices into an immediate internal strain. Imported inflation then becomes a daily constraint, eroding purchasing power and feeding social imbalances.
In this context, projected growth around 2.1% does not translate into a recovery dynamic, but rather a state of prolonged stagnation. It reflects an economy that struggles to generate its own engines, too exposed to external shocks and insufficiently diversified to absorb them.
The End of the Illusion of Delicate Steering
For decades, macroeconomic management rested on the idea of a gradual adjustment of imbalances. Central banks, through interest rates and stabilization tools, were supposed to smooth cycles and prevent excesses. This vision rested on an implicit assumption of relative stability of the system.
