The United States goods trade deficit reached $134.9 billion in September 2026, its highest level since March 2025.
Despite rising exports, imports hit a record, buoyed in particular by demand for equipment needed to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The figures published on Wednesday, October 28, by the Census Bureau, complicate U.S. growth forecasts for the third quarter. They illustrate a paradox: investments in AI can stimulate domestic activity while increasing overseas purchases and, consequently, the trade deficit.
Key Takeaways
• $134.9 billion goods trade deficit in September, up 2.1% from the previous month.
• $344.1 billion in imports (+2.4%), versus $209.2 billion in exports (+2.6%).
• Imports of capital goods rise 7.5% month over month and 77.2% year over year.
• The Atlanta Fed estimates the external trade contribution to growth in Q3 at −2.95 percentage points, while forecasting an overall real GDP growth rate of 3.3% at an annualized pace.
A deficit of $134.9 billion, despite rising exports
The goods trade deficit rose by $2.8 billion to $132.1 billion in August, a 2.1% increase. Economists surveyed by Reuters expected a smaller deficit of $130.2 billion. The imbalance widened over the three months of the third quarter.
| Indicator | Sept. 2026 | Change for the Month |
| Imports | 344.1 billion dollars | +2.4% |
| Exports | 209.2 billion dollars | +2.6% |
| Goods deficit | 134.9 billion dollars | +2.1% |
Source: Census Bureau, preliminary report of October 28, 2026. Amounts in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted for variations and not adjusted for inflation. Rates are rounded.
Note on scope: the $134.9 billion concerns only goods. They do not represent the overall deficit for goods and services. The complete September data, including services, is to be released on November 4.
AI drives a jump in equipment imports
The United States imports rose by $8.1 billion in September to a record $344.1 billion. Purchases of capital goods rose 7.5% from August and 77.2% from September 2025, according to data cited by Reuters.
This category includes computers, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment used in data centers. An increasing share of these items is imported as American tech companies accelerate their AI investments.
The economist Stephen Stanley, of Santander US Capital Markets, notes that tech companies source largely abroad. According to data cited by Bloomberg, the equipment goods deficit widened by $54.3 billion over a year. This does not, however, mean that all purchases in this category are destined for AI.
Domestic demand remains robust and exports rise
Domestic demand is also contributing to the movement. Imports of consumer goods rose 3.1%, while those of other goods rose 6.7%. By contrast, imports of industrial supplies, a category including oil and gold, fell 6%. Purchases of food products and motor vehicles also declined.
Exports of goods, for their part, rose by $5.3 billion to $209.2 billion, or +2.6%. Foreign sales of food products jumped 12.8%, those of capital goods 5.4%, and those of consumer goods 6.5%. These increases were partially offset by declines in auto exports and in industrial supplies.
The deficit thus worsened not because exports collapsed, but because imports increased more in value: an additional $8.1 billion versus $5.3 billion for exports.
Growth: very different forecasts before the official figure
The expected impact on gross domestic product (GDP) is debated. Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that net trade could subtract about 4 percentage points from the annualized growth rate of Q3; Oxford Economics puts this drag at 3.25 points.
The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed, updated on October 28, places this contribution at −2.95 points, while maintaining a forecast of 3.3% growth for total real GDP. Before the latest trade data, a Reuters poll of economists yielded an average of +3.2%. Oliver Allen, of Pantheon Macroeconomics, now thinks growth could be closer to 1%.
These projections should not be confused with an official result: they rely on different models and assumptions. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to publish its first official estimate of Q3 GDP on Thursday, October 29, 2026.
Why imports can both weigh on GDP and support investment
In GDP calculation, imports are subtracted to avoid counting foreign-made goods as domestic production. But the purchase of an imported server by an American company can also appear in its investments. The decline in the external trade contribution does not, therefore, by itself, mean that the entire economy is contracting.
Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide, thus argues that the rise in imports also reflects the vigor of business investment and consumer spending. In the medium term, the question is how much AI equipment will enable greater production and productivity on U.S. soil.
Inventories also play a role. According to the Census Bureau, wholesale inventories rose by 0.6% in September to $1,011.5 billion, while retail inventories rose by 0.3% to $885.3 billion. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail trade inventories rose by 0.4%, after 0.1% in August. Some of the still-unsold imports may thus be included in the inventory changes used for GDP.
What implications for trade between Tunisia and the United States?
The United States imported $1.014 billion of Tunisian goods and exported to Tunisia $589.6 million. These figures relate to 2025, and should not be mixed with the U.S. data for September 2026.
For the Tunisian economy, the elements to watch are mainly the evolution of U.S. demand, the sourcing choices of technology companies, and the moves of the dollar. There is, however, at this stage, no figure establishing a direct effect of the widening U.S. deficit on Tunisian exports.
The TN Take
The U.S. trade deficit reveals a growing dependence on equipment made abroad, even as investment in artificial intelligence accelerates. Part of this deficit reflects purchases aimed at expanding future production capacity: thus it is not enough to observe the trade balance alone to judge the health of the economy.
The two upcoming milestones will be the official first estimate of Q3 GDP, announced on October 29, and then the full September goods-and-services trade figures, scheduled for November 4. These releases will allow for a better measurement of the real effect of imports and the role of investments and inventories.
