Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered at the end of February 2026 by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in response to American-Israeli strikes against Iran, the world holds its breath.
Approximately 20% of crude oil and liquefied natural gas transited through this passage in peacetime.
For China, the world’s largest oil importer, the threat appears existential. And yet Beijing resists. For behind the apparent fragility lies a decade of methodical, silent, and fearsome preparation.
A Real Exposure
With nearly 55% of its oil consumption dependent on imports, and 30 to 45% of those flows transiting the Strait of Hormuz, China appears, at first glance, particularly exposed. The figures are dizzying: 57% of its maritime oil imports are threatened with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, or 5.9 million barrels per day imported from six Gulf states.
But reducing the situation to a simple dependency would be an incomplete reading. For Beijing did not discover this risk today. China is highly exposed but has a solid energy strategy, beefed up by Beijing since Trump’s return to the White House.
Anticipating geopolitical tensions, authorities had decided to significantly increase crude imports ahead of the conflict. Crude oil imports rose by nearly 16% in the first two months of 2026 compared with 2025, a year already marked by a sustained accumulation of reserves.
Result: China would today have 1.4 billion barrels of oil in stock, enough to fill a roughly six-month supply deficit if all crude oil imports from the Middle East were completely interrupted.
A Supply That Bypasses the Strait of Hormuz
China’s real strength lies not only in its stocks, but in the alternative geography it has patiently built. Russia’s rise as a major energy supplier, now the leading exporter of oil to China, illustrates this rapid diversification drive, reinforced since Western sanctions in 2022.
