One hundred days after the onset of the US-Israeli war against Iran, the conflict is no longer measured solely in strikes, missiles intercepted or tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. In the United States, it now appears in gas stations, supermarkets, plane tickets and mortgage payments.
According to Moody’s Analytics analysis, each American household would have spent on average $750 more than usual since the start of the war. Energy expenditures alone account for about $447.19 of this excess cost.
The bill could rise further. The resumption of strikes between Israel and Iran has revived tensions in the markets, pushing Brent above $96 per barrel. For American consumers, this means that the increases already recorded in gasoline, transportation and food may not be over yet.
An average bill of $750 per household
Moody’s Analytics’ estimate provides a concrete measure of the conflict’s impact on daily life.
American households would collectively bear about $100 billion in additional expenditures, or nearly $750 per household. The bulk of this sum comes from energy price increases: gasoline, diesel, kerosene, heating and transport costs.
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, speaks of a significant economic shock, hitting particularly low- and middle-income households.
These families devote a larger share of their income to essential needs. They therefore have less room to absorb rising fuel, grocery and housing costs.
The price per gallon rises from $2.98 to $4.22
Fuel is the most visible manifestation of this wartime inflation.
On February 28, 2026, the day the strikes against Iran began, the average price of regular gasoline in the United States was $2.98 per gallon. One hundred days later, it stood at around $4.22, according to data from the American Automobile Association.
This rise represents an increase of more than 40% in just over three months.
The rise is explained in part by attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, disruptions to shipping traffic and the reduction of passages through the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost a fifth of the world’s oil and gas exports pass.
Under the influence of expensive fuel, habits are starting to change. Americans are reducing their travel, foregoing certain trips or asking to work more remotely. According to a survey cited in the report, 44% of respondents say they drive less due to higher gasoline prices.
Inflation climbs to 3.8%
Energy price rises are not confined to gas stations. They are gradually spreading through the entire economy.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred indicators, showed a 5.5% increase in energy prices in its latest release.
Overall inflation thus rose from 3.5% to 3.8%, its strongest acceleration in three years.
Businesses must pay more to run their machinery, transport their goods and stock their outlets. Some of these costs end up being passed on to consumers.
This new inflationary pressure also complicates the Federal Reserve’s task. While households hoped for lower interest rates, the central bank could be forced to keep a restrictive monetary policy for longer.
Consumers cut back on spending
Rising prices are beginning to weigh on Americans’ confidence.
The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index fell to 44.8 points in May, down from 49.8 in April and 52.2 a year earlier. It is among the lowest levels in recent years.
Another survey indicates that nearly two-thirds of American consumers have started reducing their spending due to the rising cost of living.
Households are delaying major purchases, opting for cheaper products, limiting outings and using more credit to cover some everyday expenses.
The overseas war thus becomes an internal brake on consumption, while consumption remains one of the main drivers of the American economy.
Airline tickets rise in turn
Air travel is particularly vulnerable, as fuel accounts for a large share of airlines’ expenses.
Airfare prices rose by 2.7% in March, then a further 2.8% in April, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Some carriers are considering much larger increases. United Airlines had said it could raise its fares by up to 20% to offset the surge in kerosene.
Tickets are often sold 30, 60 or 90 days before departure, so the fuel price rise does not immediately and fully pass through to travelers. Part of the shock could therefore still appear in coming months.
Airlines are also reducing capacities, eliminating unprofitable routes and raising ancillary charges. For American families, vacationing or visiting relatives is becoming increasingly expensive.
Spirit Airlines swept away by the rise in kerosene
Spirit Airlines has become one of the symbols of this crisis.
The low-cost carrier ceased operations after more than thirty years in business. In its bankruptcy filings, it attributed part of its difficulties to the sharp rise in fuel.
Spirit had based its rescue plan on kerosene priced around $2.24 per gallon. By the end of April, its price reached around $4.51, more than double the assumed price.
The disappearance of this airline is also likely to reduce competition on certain routes and allow remaining carriers to keep prices higher.
Food could be the next victim
The energy shock is also starting to hit food products.
In April, food prices rose by 0.5% in a month, their strongest increase since November 2022. Meat prices rose by 1.3%, fruits and vegetables by 1.8%.
American farmers face a double squeeze. They must pay more for the diesel used by their machinery and for transporting their products, but also for the fertilizers needed for crops.
The Gulf region plays a major role in global production of urea, nitrogen and sulfur. The World Bank foresees a 31% rise in fertilizer prices by year’s end, with an increase potentially reaching 60% for urea.
The effects will not necessarily be immediate. They could appear in the shelves when the next harvests reach the market, in six to nine months.
Mortgage lending becomes more expensive
The war has also reached the housing market.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from about 5.98% in February to 6.5% by the end of May.
Rising oil prices feed inflation expectations, pushing investors to demand higher yields on U.S. Treasuries. Those yields, in turn, influence the rates offered to households for their home loans.
For a family hoping to buy a home, a few tenths of a point more represent tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
This trend is likely to slow the housing market further and make homeownership more difficult.
A war already costing the Pentagon $29 billion
The bill also concerns public finances.
As of May 12, the Pentagon estimated that operations against Iran had already cost about $29 billion. The first six days of the conflict alone mobilized at least $11.3 billion.
This amount includes military operations, munitions, and repairs and replacements of some equipment. The exact methodology of the calculation has not been fully detailed, however.
The Pentagon has requested additional appropriations to continue the operations, while the White House plans a sharp increase in the defense budget and reductions in several civilian programs.
The question thus becomes as much political as economic: how long can the United States finance this war while asking households to absorb the higher cost of living?
A war abroad becoming a domestic problem
The war against Iran takes place thousands of miles from American territory. Yet its consequences are now visible in almost every line of the family budget.
Americans pay more to travel, fly, eat and borrow. They cut back on spending while the government allocates tens of billions of dollars to military operations.
After one hundred days, the conflict has crossed an invisible border: it is no longer merely a war waged abroad. It has become a source of inflation, discontent and uncertainty at the very heart of the American economy.
And with the resumption of strikes, the question may no longer be why the war has already cost $750 per household, but how far this bill can still rise.
