The United States sees its main oil safety cushion shrink to a level unseen in more than four decades. As the war with Iran and persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shake energy markets, stocks of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve have fallen to their lowest level since 1983.
According to The Hill, which cites data from Bank of America Global Research, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) now represents only about 43 days of crude oil supply.
This decline comes after several months of withdrawals aimed at cushioning the impact of price increases and supply disruptions passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
More than 108 million barrels already released
The Trump administration has pledged to withdraw 172 million barrels over a 120-day period.
Approximately 108.6 million barrels have already been pumped into the market. Federal data now show a remaining stock of about 304.8 million barrels.
Using this reserve allows Washington to temporarily compensate for part of the missing volumes and to limit pressure on prices. But it simultaneously reduces the United States’ room to maneuver in case of a renewed deterioration of the energy situation.
This contradiction becomes all the more acute as the duration of the conflict and the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain.
Hormuz narrows the American safety margin
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategic passages in the global energy market. Under normal conditions, nearly a fifth of world oil trade transits there daily.
According to The Hill, the passage has effectively remained closed to the bulk of commercial navigation for most of the last five months, causing significant disruptions and substantial volatility in crude prices.
Continued withdrawals from the strategic reserve thus place Washington in a delicate trade-off: using more oil to contain current tensions, at the risk of reducing available capacity to respond to a new crisis.
Donald Trump himself had warned on June 17 about the risk of excessive use of the reserves during the war, saying they could be rapidly drawn down if withdrawals continued at the same pace.
The June 17 de-escalation attempt did not hold
On June 17 as well, Donald Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran that was to pave the way for a prolonged ceasefire and to secure the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz once again.
However, the détente proved short-lived.
Attacks resumed on July 8, immediately triggering a renewed rise in oil prices.
That day, crude prices rose by about 5%. Brent gained 5.2% to reach $78.02 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced 4.4% to $73.52.
Energy-saving measures in several Asian countries
The crisis’s consequences are not limited to the United States.
Several energy-importing economies have begun taking emergency measures to curb consumption.
According to The Hill, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are among the countries that have adopted energy-conservation measures. These include restrictions on air conditioner use and measures aimed at limiting vehicle use.
China, for its part, has a considerably larger safety margin.
Its oil imports have fallen by about 3.5 million barrels per day compared with the previous year, dropping from an average around 11 million barrels per day to about 7.8 million.
This reduction is aided by the magnitude of its stockpiles. By combining government and commercial reserves, The Hill estimates their total at about 1.4 billion barrels.
Fuel prices become a political problem for Trump
In the United States, rising energy prices are also exerting growing political pressure on Donald Trump.
The American president criticized several major oil companies, notably ExxonMobil and Chevron, accusing the sector of earning substantial profits in the context of war and calling for lower prices paid by consumers at gas stations.
Price formation at the pump remains, however, more complex.
Major oil producers do not directly determine the prices charged at most gas stations. Industry professionals emphasize that disruptions in the global crude market caused by the war with Iran will continue to exert pressure on retail prices.
Even when crude oil retreats, the decline is not usually immediately visible at the pump. Historically, several weeks can be required before the drop in international prices fully translates into lower fuel prices.
For Washington, the equation is therefore becoming more delicate: contain energy prices in the short term while preserving enough strategic reserves to face a crisis whose duration remains, at this stage, uncertain.
