Buying a home that does not yet exist means financing a construction project without being able to control either its timeline or its costs. The risk lies in the strength of the developer, the quality of the guarantees, the cost of delays, and the household’s ability to sustain its loan.
Savings committed before the existence of the asset
Buying off-plan obliges households to advance funds in installments, often backed by a loan, for a property that has no usable value and no certain resale value. The macroeconomic context weighs on this bet. Inflation reached 5.6% in September 2026, up from 5.4% in August, and the Central Bank kept its policy rate at 7% in October.
Growth stood at 2.6% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Such a pace does not reconstitute households’ disposable income while purchasing power has not kept up with the rise in construction costs. For a middle-class family, the apartment often represents most of the wealth, and a miscalibration error is paid over twenty years.
Counterparty risk: evaluating the developer before the plan
The primary risk lies in the seller’s financial health. According to statistical data, 1,670 private developers operate in Tunisia and have produced 17% of the housing units built. Their business model relies on credit. Private developers would borrow at rates of 10% to 11%, which makes any price drop almost impossible.
The stock of loans to developers reached 5,004 million dinars at end-March 2024. In this scheme, buyers’ advances play the role of cheap financing, exposing the buyer to the developer’s first cash-flow shock. The prospective buyer must therefore request accounts, the delivery history, and the progress status of ongoing projects.
Guarantees: a safety net to check before the first payment
The legal framework has evolved to better protect the buyer. Guarantees, long limited to bank guarantees, have been complemented by an insurance guarantee to enable the restitution of advances in case of contractual breach, delay beyond the permitted grace period, termination, cessation of payment, or bankruptcy. On paper, the protection is real.
In practice, its value depends on three points: the identity of the guarantor, the extent of the coverage, and the timing of its issuance. A guarantee issued after the first payment, or one that covers only part of the sums paid, leaves the entire risk on the household’s savings. The name of the institution, the amount guaranteed, and the cases triggering it must be stated clearly in the contract.
Delay, an invisible but cumulative cost
