Investment in Tunisian manufacturing industries sends, in the first half of 2026, a broadly positive signal. But behind the improvement of the national indicator lie trajectories that are radically different across sectors.
According to the semiannual survey by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), the balance of opinions of business leaders on the evolution of investment reaches 24 % in the first half of 2026, versus 21 % in the second half of 2025. For the second half, the anticipated indicator stands at 26 %.
At first glance, the message seems simple: industrial investment is gradually picking up. But the national average tells only part of the story.
In the mechanical and electrical industries, the balance of opinions reaches 48, i.e., 26 points above its historical average. In the textile, clothing and leather sectors, it falls to -4, i.e., 13 points below its norm.
Between these two extremes, a Tunisian industry with multiple speeds emerges.
How should these figures be read?
A balance of 48 does not mean that investment has progressed by 48 %. It represents the gap between the share of companies reporting an increase in their investments and that reporting a decrease.
The higher the balance, the more the balance of power tilts toward a rise.
An indicator to be read as a signal, not as a growth rate
The INS figures do not directly measure the amounts invested.
The “opinion balance” corresponds to the difference between the portion of firms reporting an increase in their investments and the portion reporting a decrease. A balance of 48 therefore does not mean that investments have increased by 48 %, nor that 48 % of firms have increased their expenditures.
The survey was conducted in May 2026 with a sample of 1,085 manufacturing enterprises. These semiannual surveys have been carried out since 2001, and the series are seasonally adjusted.
Sector figures necessarily rest on smaller subsamples. They should therefore be read primarily as trend signals, especially when the differences from one half-year to the next remain limited.
The national figure of 24 hides six very different situations
To understand what is really happening, the absolute level of each sector is not enough. It must also be compared to its own historical behavior.
| Sector | Current Balance S1 2026 |
Historical Average | Deviation from Norm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechanical and Electrical Industries | 48 | 22 | +26 |
| Chemical Industries | 29 | 20 | +9 |
| Diverse Industries | 15 | 11 | +4 |
| Construction Materials, Ceramics and Glass | 19 | 16 | +3 |
| Agro-Food Industries | 15 | 17 | –2 |
| Textile, Clothing and Leather | –4 | 9 | –13 |
Reading: the deviation from the norm measures the difference between the first-half-2026 balance and the sector’s historical average. An opinion balance is not an investment growth rate.
The sector values and their historical averages come from the detailed table published by the INS.
This comparison substantially changes the reading.
For example, agro-food shows a positive balance of 15, but this remains slightly below its long-term average of 17.
Conversely, a balance of 29 in chemistry keeps the sector nine points above its norm.
Two branches stand out especially: high for mechanical-electrical and low for textile.
Mechanical and Electrical: well above its norm, but after a peak
The mechanical and electrical industries constitute the strongest signal in the survey.
Their balance rises from 35 in the second half of 2025 to 48 in the first half of 2026, with a historical average of only 22. The sector is therefore currently 26 points above its norm.
For the second half, the anticipated balance reaches 37. It remains very high and well above the sector’s historical average of anticipations, which is 20, but it is below the current level of 48.
It is therefore not a matter of speaking of a new acceleration compared with the peak reached in the first half.
The signal is subtler: mechanical-electrical would remain one of the most dynamic industrial sectors, while returning from an exceptionally high level.
The progression from 10 to 37 visible in the INS table corresponds, indeed, to two successive surveys focusing on expectations. It is not a direct comparison between current investment and future investment.
The distinction is important.
Chemistry: a still elevated level, but a clear cooldown expected
The situation is different in the chemical industries.
In the first half, their balance reaches 29, down from 38 in the previous half. Despite this decline, it remains 9 points above its historical average, set at 20.
The signal becomes clearly more cautious when looking at the expectations.
In the INS detailed table, the expected balance moves from 31 to 18 for the second half of 2026. The anticipated level thus exactly matches its long-term historical average, also set at 18.
Chemistry therefore does not dip into negative territory. But after a period where investment was well above its norm, business leaders anticipate a return to a much more typical rhythm.
One reading nuance deserves to be noted. The editorial commentary of the survey attributes the movement 31→18 to construction materials and presents chemistry as stable. The detailed sector table, on the contrary, shows a 31→18 for chemistry, while construction materials move from 18 to 17.
The reading adopted here therefore relies on the INS detailed table.
TN Reading Note
The accompanying commentary attributes the movement 31 → 18 to construction materials and presents chemistry as stable. The detailed sector table, however, indicates 31 → 18 for chemistry and 18 → 17 for construction materials.
Our analysis relies on the data from the detailed table.
